Vol 6 No 1 (2019)
Articles

Revisiting the Exports and Economic Growth Nexus: Rolling Window Cointegration and Causality Evidence from Cote d’Ivoire, Malaysia, Pakistan and South Africa

Yaya Keho
National School of Statistics and Applied Economics (ENSEA) Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire
Published June 7, 2019
Statistics
257 Views | 99 Downloads
Keywords
  • Exports, Economic growth, Rolling window regression, Causality, Cointegration, Export-led growth, Growth-led exports.
Citations
How to Cite
Keho, Y. (2019). Revisiting the Exports and Economic Growth Nexus: Rolling Window Cointegration and Causality Evidence from Cote d’Ivoire, Malaysia, Pakistan and South Africa. Asian Journal of Economics and Empirical Research, 6(1), 27-35. https://doi.org/10.20448/journal.501.2019.61.27.35

Abstract

This paper reexamines the relationship between exports and economic growth in Cote d’Ivoire, Malaysia, Pakistan and South Africa using time-varying cointegration and causality tests. The cointegration results suggest that exports, investment in physical capital and GDP move together in the long-run in the four countries. Furthermore, the full sample Granger causality tests support the export-led growth hypothesis for Malaysia and Pakistan, and the growth-led exports hypothesis for South Africa. However, the rolling window cointegration and causality tests show that the long-run and also the causal relationships between exports and GDP are time-varying. For most time periods we do not find any causal relationship between exports and GDP. There are, however, sub-periods during which unidirectional or bidirectional causal relations were found. Therefore, export-promoting strategies are not always effective tools to stimulate economic growth.

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