An Analysis of the Relationship among Economic Growth, External Debt and Exports in India (1970-2018)
- External debt, Economic growth, Exports, Co-integration, Granger-causality.
This paper attempts to examine the relationship among debt servicing, exports and GDP for India during 1970 – 2018 using co-integration test, error correction model and Granger causality test. In the bi-variate model with constant trend specification GDP and exports seem to have no long-term relationship. However, change in GDP Granger causes change in exports. For the restricted constant trend specification, in the short run, GDP affects exports positively and significantly. GDP and debt services seem to have a positive and significant long-term relationship in the bivariate model. The tri-variate model including GDP, Exports and debt service reveals a long term relationship among the variables where both exports and debt services affect GDP positively and significantly. GDP, exports and debt stocks do not have any long term relationship with constant trend specification, but change in GDP is found to Granger cause change in exports. For the restricted constant trend specification, however, there seems to be a long term relationship among them. In the short run GDP affects exports positively and significantly. In general, results indicate a positive and significant impact of GDP on exports. A significant positive long run impact of external debt on economic growth is also observed when debt service is the indicator of external debt. The short run impacts of external debt in terms of both debt servicing and debt stocks, however, produce diverse and insignificant results.