Revisiting the forecasting power of public health expenditure and climate change impact on life expectancy in Nigeria: A scenario analysis.

Abubakar Orlando Ijoko, Salam S Mohammed — Fri, 07 Mar 2025 00:00:00 +0000

In this study, we investigate the forecasting power of public health expenditure and the impact of climate change on life expectancy in Nigeria. This study relies on time-series data covering a period of 35 years (1988 to 2022) and uses a bias-adjusted ordinary least squares (OLS) method to predict the relationship and ARMSE to forecast with 8 policy options (scenarios) for 5 years. The analysis is based on data sourced from FAO, 2025, and WDI, 2025 databases. The results reveal a positive impact of both climate change (CC) and public health expenditure (PHE) on life expectancy (LE). In a single predictor model, for every one-degree Celsius rise (or fall) in CC and a percentage rise (or fall) in PHE, LE will rise (or fall) by 52.3 and 2.82, respectively. However, in a multiple predictor equation, the responses of LE to a change in CC and PHE are 15.14 and 2.12, respectively. We also reveal the 3rd scenario as the best option for policymaking. Given these positive impact results, the study concludes that climate change has led to an improvement in healthcare investment in Nigeria to mitigate the effects of climate-induced health challenges. We thus advise the government to sustain its improvement in the health sector through budgetary allocation and implementation.

Analysis and empirical study on the influencing factors of the tourism economy in Hunan Province

Lei Wen — Fri, 21 Mar 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Tourism is a key driver of regional economic development and a foundational sector for national economic growth. Understanding the factors influencing the tourism industry is crucial for policy and investment decisions. This study examines the determinants of tourism revenue in Hunan Province, China, from 2003 to 2019. Using factor and regression analysis, the study investigates the impact of nine independent variables: rail and road travel distances, civil air passenger traffic, total number of tourists, art performance groups, GDP, urban and rural disposable income, and food and beverage consumption. All nine factors positively correlate with Hunan’s tourism revenue, indicating that economic and infrastructural variables significantly influence tourism industry growth. Strengthening tourism infrastructure, enhancing investment channels, and supporting supply-side reforms are essential for sustained growth. Regional collaboration and innovation should be prioritized to drive long-term industry development. Policymakers should focus on expanding tourism consumption capacity, improving connectivity, and fostering an innovation-driven tourism economy to enhance regional and national economic benefits.

Economy

Revisiting the forecasting power of public health expenditure and climate change impact on life expectancy in Nigeria: A scenario analysis.

Analysis and empirical study on the influencing factors of the tourism economy in Hunan Province