Dynamics of Demographic Structure and Economic Growth in Nigeria

Abstract

This study evaluated the impact of demographic structure on Nigeria’s economic growth over the period between 1981 and 2016. Employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) framework and granger causality test, this study confirms the existence of a long-run relationship between the dependent and independent variables. The results showed that aged population has a negative impact on economic growth while children population and labour force stimulate growth of the Nigerian economy thereby supporting the existence of the demographic dividend hypothesis. On the other hand, whereas a bidirectional relationship exists between aged population and economic growth in Nigeria and a unidirectional causality runs from children population and labour force to real GDP, economic growth engenders gross fixed capital formation (investment) and school enrolment. Hence, this study concludes that aged population, children population, labour force, gross fixed capital formation and secondary school enrolment constitute important determinants of economic growth in Nigeria. Therefore, this study recommends that the Nigerian government provide incentives and platforms which will encourage old people to engage in productive activities and to continually develop human capital of the children and labour force as it would increase the effectiveness of labour and have growth-enhancing effects on the Nigerian economy.