Prediction of Climate Change Effects on Plantain Yield in Ondo State, Nigeria
- General circulation models, RCP 4.5, Climate change, Plantain, Precipitation, Maximum temperature, Minimum temperature, AEZ, Ondo state
This study investigated the effects of climate change on plantain (Musa spp) for three Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZs) in Ondo State. Climate projections of six selected general circulation models (GCMs) under climate scenarios-Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5) were applied for different periods; baseline (1975–2005); future periods 2035–2065 [2050s] and 2070–2100 ). The results of regression analysis showed a positive relationship between precipitation and plantain yield, while maximum (Tmax) and minimum temperature (Tmin) indicated no significant relationship with plantain yield at P˂ 0.01 in all the AEZs. The output of trend analysis indicated an increase in Tmax of 0.046oC/year for Ondo North Agro-Ecological Zone (ONAEZ), while Ondo South Agro-Ecological Zone (OSAEZ) has the lowest increment of 0.003oC/year. Tmin for Ondo Central Agro-Ecological Zone (OCAEZ) increased by 0.007oC/year and decreased with 0.004oC/year and 0.030oC/year for ONAEZ and OSAEZ. However, analysis of precipitation events in the study areas from 1975-2005 showed that OCAEZ received the highest increase of 7.47 mm/year and decreased by 13.48 mm/year and 2.84 mm/year for ONAEZ and OSAEZ respectively. Largest plantain yield reduction compared to the control-period for CCCMA model was -30.3% and -38.1% for the 2050s and 2080s whereas ICHEC model predicted an average lowest reduction of -7.5% and -12.5% for the short time and long periods in ONAEZ. In OSAEZ, plantain yield decreases varied from -6.3% to -8.4% for CNRM model, -6.1% to -6.7% (MPI) and -36.1% to -37.7% for CCCMA. In conclusion, overall climate change simulations in OCAEZ showed that projected climate may have relatively small negative effects on plantain yield compared to ONAEZ and OSAEZ respectively.